Even if Democrats win the House in November, Nancy Pelosi is unlikely to be the next Speaker of the House. The much anticipated Blue Wave set to hand Democrats control in November has had it’s share of roadbumps. While Democrats cheer close races in red districts and claim moral victories when they lose, the Blue Wave theory definitely has it’s skeptics. One reason for the skepticism might be how fast Democrats are running away from themselves.
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief as every candidate Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed last Tuesday lost. Saturday saw another Democratic Socialist loss as Hawaii chose a so called “fiscal conservative” Democrat Ed Case over rabidly anti-Trump Democratic Socialist Doug Chin. The battle to beat back the Democratic Socialists in the DNC seems on track.
But Democrats are also running against Nancy Pelosi. In fact 49% of Democrats want Pelosi out of Democrat leadership. 79% of independents don’t want Pelosi running the party. Many Democrat candidates for the House have also promised to replace Pelosi.
The Democrat blue wave relies on history and political theory. History says the President usually loses the House in his first midterm. Political theory says congressional elections are all local. In other words, people care less about party than they do the individuals who are actually running. At the same time, the Democrat party is struggling. Their “abolish ICE” movement exposed their activist wing as idiotic. But Pelosi has also failed to produce anything other than extreme hatred for Trump as a platform. The best thing they’ve come up with is how important it is to raise taxes again.
There is no plan B. Joe Crowley was destined to be Pelosi’s replacement, until he lost to an upstart Democratic Socialist in New York. For the blue wave to work, Democrats will need to continue to keep it quiet that a Democrat House will be led by Nancy Pelosi or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.